What Does New Hampshire Tell Us About the Upcoming General Election?

Can New Hampshire, a state that has over 40% of registered voters registered as Independent, give us some clues as to how the rest of the primaries and even general election might shape up? If past history is any indicator, nothing can be really forecast based on New Hampshire other than possibly which candidates will be finding it easier or more difficult to raise money for their campaigns. Primary winners and losers in New Hampshire have gone on to occupy the White House after the general election so it is by no means a predictor of success further down the campaign trail.

One thing the primary may be some indicator of is the leanings of some Independent voters. By most accounts, the Independent voters in New Hampshire leaned toward Obama and McCain. Despite his support from Independents, Barack Obama came away with only a second place finish which may be indicative of some vulnerability with the core Democratic voters. Senator Clinton made it clear that she will continue to go after Senator Obama on the experience factor. It will remain to be seen if it will be a strategy that is effective. The voters in Nevada, South Carolina, Michigan and Florida will surely get a full dose of negative campaigning from both sides of the political aisle over the next few weeks as they hold their primaries.

The real test of the campaigns’ resolves and reserves will come with the push for votes in the 22 state “Super Tuesday” primary/caucus day. The states up for grabs on February 5th are some of the biggest delegate prizes in the nation including California and New York. It is likely that there will be a candidate on at least one side of the aisle with a lock on the nomination by the end of the day on February 6th. At the very least there will likely be a much smaller field of candidates after February’s first primaries. The campaign budgets of the second tier candidates will likely be exhausted by the time the “Super Tuesday” votes have been cast. Given that money is the life’s blood of modern presidential campaigns, those that have money left will be able to press on and those who have had to rely on minimal fundraising will not have the means to compete effectively leaving them without the ability to fundraise. People don’t tend to give to losing campaigns beyond a small hardcore group of supporters that will stick with a candidate to the end.

The third place finisher for the Democrats is becoming a big question in the race. How long can John Edwards keep up the effort while finishing second and third in caucuses and primaries? His campaign has stuck to their commitment to not take money from corporate interests and accepted the spending limits inherent with taking federal campaign matching funds. While speaking volumes about his commitment to returning the process to the average working folks, it makes it hard to compete with the political machines of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama who have millions in their war chests to spend on advertising in the states with upcoming primaries. Similarly for the Republicans there is John McCain who despite his win in New Hampshire is facing serious financial difficulty in the competition for the hearts and minds of voters. If this win does not translate into a fundraising bump, McCain could be facing elimination from the race due to lack of funds before “Super Tuesday” even gets here. Another big question mark for the Republicans is Mike Huckabee who despite his win in the Iowa caucuses only managed a distant third in New Hampshire. Is Huckabee a favorite of the people in general or will he only fare well in heavily Christian conservative areas?

It seems that the New Hampshire primary has left more questions unanswered than it has answered. While there is an undeniable interest in the first primary in the nation, it serves mostly as a launching point for the discussion of the election more than anything else. In the grand scheme of things New Hampshire has not told us a great deal about the race but will undoubtedly give the political pundits and news makers an opportunity to find a great deal to talk about.

Troy Wilson-Ripsom - Staff Writer | Give your feedback on this article.

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