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Politics & Power

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What Does New Hampshire Tell Us About the Upcoming General Election?

Can New Hampshire, a state that has over 40% of registered voters registered as Independent, give us some clues as to how the rest of the primaries and even general election might shape up? If past history is any indicator, nothing can be really forecast based on New Hampshire other than possibly which candidates will be finding it easier or more difficult to raise money for their campaigns. Primary winners and losers in New Hampshire have gone on to occupy the White House after the general election so it is by no means a predictor of success further down the campaign trail.

One thing the primary may be some indicator of is the leanings of some Independent voters. By most accounts, the Independent voters in New Hampshire leaned toward Obama and McCain. Despite his support from Independents, Barack Obama came away with only a second place finish which may be indicative of some vulnerability with the core Democratic voters. Senator Clinton made it clear that she will continue to go after Senator Obama on the experience factor. It will remain to be seen if it will be a strategy that is effective. The voters in Nevada, South Carolina, Michigan and Florida will surely get a full dose of negative campaigning from both sides of the political aisle over the next few weeks as they hold their primaries.

The real test of the campaigns’ resolves and reserves will come with the push for votes in the 22 state “Super Tuesday” primary/caucus day. The states up for grabs on February 5th are some of the biggest delegate prizes in the nation including California and New York. It is likely that there will be a candidate on at least one side of the aisle with a lock on the nomination by the end of the day on February 6th. At the very least there will likely be a much smaller field of candidates after February’s first primaries. The campaign budgets of the second tier candidates will likely be exhausted by the time the “Super Tuesday” votes have been cast. Given that money is the life’s blood of modern presidential campaigns, those that have money left will be able to press on and those who have had to rely on minimal fundraising will not have the means to compete effectively leaving them without the ability to fundraise. People don’t tend to give to losing campaigns beyond a small hardcore group of supporters that will stick with a candidate to the end.

The third place finisher for the Democrats is becoming a big question in the race. How long can John Edwards keep up the effort while finishing second and third in caucuses and primaries? His campaign has stuck to their commitment to not take money from corporate interests and accepted the spending limits inherent with taking federal campaign matching funds. While speaking volumes about his commitment to returning the process to the average working folks, it makes it hard to compete with the political machines of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama who have millions in their war chests to spend on advertising in the states with upcoming primaries. Similarly for the Republicans there is John McCain who despite his win in New Hampshire is facing serious financial difficulty in the competition for the hearts and minds of voters. If this win does not translate into a fundraising bump, McCain could be facing elimination from the race due to lack of funds before “Super Tuesday” even gets here. Another big question mark for the Republicans is Mike Huckabee who despite his win in the Iowa caucuses only managed a distant third in New Hampshire. Is Huckabee a favorite of the people in general or will he only fare well in heavily Christian conservative areas?

It seems that the New Hampshire primary has left more questions unanswered than it has answered. While there is an undeniable interest in the first primary in the nation, it serves mostly as a launching point for the discussion of the election more than anything else. In the grand scheme of things New Hampshire has not told us a great deal about the race but will undoubtedly give the political pundits and news makers an opportunity to find a great deal to talk about.

Troy Wilson-Ripsom - Staff Writer | Give your feedback on this article.





Get Involved

Do you sit and yell at the TV when politicians come on? Do you shake your head sadly whenever you see a homeless veteran? Is that all you tend to do?

It's time to put up or shut up America. We all love to talk about how we could do things better or how we would do it if we were in charge. Well, it's time to put your money where your mouth is. If you can think of it, you can write it down. If you can write it down, you can type it. If you can type it, you can e-mail it and if you can e-mail it, you can send it here.

We at Reform America are committed to giving voice to anyone who wants to put their ideas out there to make our nation a better place. As the readership grows, we are able to take those views to a wider and wider audience. Grassroots campaigns begin with voices speaking out. You have opinions. Voice them. We aren't about conservative or liberal. We aren't about pro-this or anti-that. We're about Americans and the First Amendment. Reform America is about politics by, for and of the people. You are the people. You only need to speak up. America is listening. Send your article to: stories@reform-america.net



Have You Been Downsized Due to Outsourcing?

For several years now we have listened to some within the business community tell us that America can't compete on a global scale unless they send our jobs overseas where they can be done cheaper. The question becomes, if we don't have good paying jobs here, how can we sustain our own economy? We want to hear from you. Have you lost your job? Have you been forced into a lower wage job due to outsourcing? Has outsourcing been a success for you? Did you end up in a better job?

Tell us your story so we can make sure the politicians see how outsourcing really impacts the workers who are backbone of America. Send your story to stories@reform-america.net

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